Episode 832
832: Solar After the Megabill: Tax Credits, Tariffs & What’s Next |Christian Roselund
Is the “Big Beautiful Bill” about to choke the life out of solar & wind?
Can energy storage be solar’s savior?
Isn’t Solar inevitable? We don’t need no stinking subsidies, right? Right?
If you haven’t had a chance to catch up yet on all that the bill implies, keep reading (seriously at the bottom I’ve linked a ton of recommended reading!)
In this episode, policy analyst, Christian Roselund, returns to SunCast to unpack the real implications of the recently passed Megabill—a sweeping piece of legislation that redefines how the solar (and wind) industry can operate in the U.S. From shifting timelines to aggressive FEOC (foreign entity of concern) ownership rules, the bill undoes decades of positive momentum, but could hasten the inevitable - that solar + batteries will be at or below grid-parity with or without incentives.
With residential solar already faltering and manufacturers scrambling to comply with 45X and FEOC rules, this episode delivers an unfiltered look at the legislative changes that could derail billions in investment.
Christian—known for making complex policy digestible—breaks down what the new rules actually say (well, what was known at the time at least!), what’s still misunderstood, and how companies should prepare for a volatile few years ahead.
Note to Listener:
Since this conversation was recorded, the final version of the OBBB was passed with some significant updates: most notably, the 25D and 48E residential solar tax credits were retained, as was transferability (a huge collective sigh!), and the 45X manufacturing credit remains in place, though compliance with FEOC rules will continue to challenge supply chains. The ITC/PTC windows under 45Y and 48E are now expected to run at full value through the early 2030s, providing much-needed policy certainty. Below, we’re providing you with PLENTY of links to the latest reading Nico and the team have been doing wrt this huge megabill and it’s impact to the solar industry.
Recommended reading:
https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1/text -> The ACTUAL Bill text - have fun!
But if you want to save some time…
https://zenodo.org/records/15801701 - Princeton professor Jesse Jenkins and his REPEAT Project analysis team’s take
https://www.cruxclimate.com/insights/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-passes-senate - Crux Climate summary - they are also hosting a webinar on the 9th that you still have time to sign up for
Energy Changemakers’ blog is predicting more grid defection: https://energychangemakers.com/big-beautiful-bill-distributed-energy-trends/
https://www.mwe.com/insights/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-navigating-clean-energy-tax-credits-in-a-new-era/ - MWE gives one of the better legal reviews I’ve seen
As does Novogradac: https://www.novoco.com/notes-from-novogradac/the-final-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-is-bad-news-for-solar-wind-home-energy-efficiency-other-clean-energy-tax-credits
The Center for American Progress predicts that the OBBBA would increase average annual electricity costs by $110 per household as early as next year, with some states seeing more than $200 increases annually. https://www.americanprogress.org/article/what-trumps-anti-environment-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-means-for-your-wallet-health-and-safety/
Meanwhile Carbon Brief says it’ll add 7Bn Tonnes which would cause global climate damages worth more than $1.6tn
https://www.carbonbrief.org/chart-trumps-big-beautiful-bill-blows-us-emissions-goal-by-7bn-tonnes/
https://www.hoganlovells.com/en/publications/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-signed-into-law-clean-energy-credits-and-new-feoc-prohibited-foreign - Noted legal firm Hogan Lovells - decent tables, a little hard to read imho
If you want to connect with today's guest, you’ll find links to his contact info in the show notes on the blog at https://mysuncast.com/suncast-episodes/.
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